Response of Ecosystem Service Value to Landscape Pattern Changes under Low-Carbon Scenario: A Case Study of Fujian Coastal Areas

Assessing the influence of landscape pattern changes on ecosystem service value (ESV) is critical for developing land-use polies and increasing services. The data sources include remote-sensing image statistical yearbooks from 2000, 2010, 2020. This study employs patch-generating simulation model, index, ecological estimation to analyse in patterns ESV Fujian coastal areas over last 20 years. future (2050) are then simulated under low-carbon scenario (LCS), with natural development (NDS) serving as a comparison. results show that: (1) most noticeable 2000 2020 reduced cultivated land area rapid expansion construction area. By 2050, will account 7.67% total LCS, whereas NDS 9.45%, indices all indicate there be greater variety fragmentation landscape, being more serious than LCS; (2) From 2000–2020, showed decreasing trend. In LCS 122.387 billion yuan, which higher 121.434 yuan NDS. Regulating services contribute ESV, followed by support services; (3) past years, except slight increase water area, other landscapes has decreased, net decrease 3.134 total. R2 fitting between change reached 0.9898 0.9843, respectively. correlations that significantly impact ESV. Simulating can provide guidance optimising patterns, promoting benign operation regional ecosystem, achieving sustainable development.